Introducing 'The Madingley Scenarios' and how to have your say.

Imagine the year 2020. Here are two different versions of our world, driven by the same four forces:

1. development of new technologies and ever larger amounts of information

2. new power structures in politics, business and in community life

3. growing importance of our relationship with the living environment

4. social and cultural change.

Scenario planning has been used for many years to help companies and military strategists in their strategic thinking. In the first version of the future - "Find My Way" - our major institutions have been unable to cope with the pace and complexity of change. In the second version - "Trust their Guidance" - the major institutions have survived in a rapidly changing world by radically revamping themselves.

The Challenge for the NHS

Both scenarios provoke thinking about different aspects of the NHS. There are relatively fixed points in both scenarios which include:

• emphasis on sustainability

• new technology

• more information

• chronic disease

• new concern with ethical issues

Key uncertainties are:

• what will count as knowledge?

• Will new technology strengthen or weaken existing intitutions?

• What will the role of national government be?

• What will be the basis of family and community life?

Please take the time to fill in a questionnaire on this strand of the Debate for Our Future.

You can also register your overall personal view of what you think the NHS needs to do to ensure it thrives.

Read the full text before joining in the debate

Scenario questionnaire

You are aware of the scenarios. Now take the opportunity to suggest actions that would support you in either world:

Please contact us if you have any queries or would like further information: future.issues.nhs@dial.pipex.com